October World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates: Soybeans

WASHINGTON-(USDA)--Soybean production is forecast at 2.983 billion bushels, up 49 million from last month. Increased harvested area more than offsets a lower projected yield. Total soybean supplies are forecast up 111 million bushels with higher crop production and sharply higher beginning stocks. Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels to 1.76 billion based on weaker prospective domestic soybean meal demand. Soybean exports are raised 50 million bushels to 1.05 billion because of increased supplies and lower prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 85 million from last month.

Soybean oil ending stocks are reduced for both 2007/08 and 2008/09 as lower domestic disappearance for food use only partly offsets reduced production.

Prices for soybeans and soybean products for 2008/09 are projected sharply lower this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008/09 is projected at $9.60 to $11.10, down $2.00 on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $260 to $320 per short ton, down $70 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 44 to 48 cents per pound, down 8 cents on both ends of the range. These changes reflect the rapid commodity price declines that have occurred in the past month.